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Доповіді НАН України. – 2007. – N 11. – С. 48–53.
Экспертное оценивание многофакторных рисков в технологическом предвидении
Н.Д. Панкратова, Н.И. Недашковская
Abstract
The multiple-factor risk evaluation in the technology foresight of prospects
of the evolution of complex innovation systems is proposed. The risk of
unpredictable situations and the force majeure risk are analyzed with the
help of the modified BOCR AHP methodology. A system of indices for
information risk evaluation on different information levels, such as point,
interval and fuzzy expert estimates taking into account the probability
distribution of expert information is developed.
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